Treasurys surge on service sector downturn

Bellwether report from the Institute for Supply Management shows nonmanufacturing activity fell well below analyst expectations.

Treasury prices rallied on recession fears Tuesday after a survey showed the services sector shrank for the first time in five years last month.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of nonmanufacturing activity declined to 44.6 in January from a revised reading of 54.4 for December. The result was well below analysts expectations. All readings below 50 indicate contraction.

The news was unsettling because for years the services sector has been one of the engines of the economy and has helped to offset the fact that U.S. manufacturing is in a lengthy decline.
The data sparked heavy early losses in the stock market and sent Treasury prices sailing higher. Investors often sell stocks and opt for Treasurys, which carry a government guarantee, when they are worried about the economy.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 17/32 to 105 14/32 with a yield of 3.58%, down from 3.64% in late trade Monday, according to BGCantor Market Data. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 30-year long bond rose 24/32 to 110 29/32 with a 4.33% yield, down from 4.37% late Monday.
The 2-year note gained 8/32 to 100 11/32 with a yield of 1.93%, down from 2.07% late Monday.
The 2-year note yield is now within striking distance of the historic low of 1.83% that it reached last month during heavy rallies. The yield is highly sensitive to interest rate policy. Traders often push it lower to signal they expect the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed funds rate to stimulate a faltering economy.

New recession alarms sends futures lower
The service sector is vital to the economy because it accounts for 84% of the 138 million jobs in the U.S., according to Tony Crescenzi, fixed-income analyst at Miller Tabak. The sector is often defined as the "soft" part of the economy - including insurance, government, tourism, banking, retail, education and social services - in contrast to heavy industry.

Some economists will use the new ISM figure to argue that the U.S. has entered a recession. It follows news late last week that the economy lost 17,000 jobs last month. However, a recession consists of two quarters in a row of economic contraction as measured by the gross domestic product and can only be declared in hindsight.

Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust said he is in the camp that believes a recession is under way.
"The recession in housing is migrating to the rest of the economy," Kasriel said. "The housing boom created a lot of jobs and the bust extinguished them. When housing prices fall, homeowners have less equity that they can extract from their house, so they have less money to spend. There is a chain reaction that affects everything."

Why the job market is worse than you think

An unemployment rate of 5% is low by historic standards. But the number of people out of work for long stretches is rising dramatically.

Ahead of Friday's January employment report, there is a lot of concern about the weakening job market, even as the unemployment rate stands at a relatively modest 5%.
The Federal Reserve cited evidence of a "softening in labor markets" when it announced both of its rate cuts this month. Congress is rushing to pass a $150 billion stimulus package that the Bush administration said should add 500,000 jobs to the economy.
The worries about the job market are widely shared on Main Street, Wall Street and inside the beltway.
The Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey found that twice as many people believed there would be fewer jobs available six months from now than those who expected more jobs.
And a survey conducted for Fortune magazine from earlier this month found that just over one in four Americans are somewhat worried or very worried about losing their job in the next 12 months.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting that the unemployment rate will remain at 5% in Friday's report. However, it's worth a reminder that this is up from just 4.7% in November. And economists expect an addition of 70,000 jobs in the month, only a modest increase.
But the jobs numbers may be even worse than they first appear. That's because the number of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer is on the rise.

Harder to find a new job - The number of long-term unemployed stood at a seasonally-adjusted 1.3 million in December, up about 22 percent from year-earlier levels. The full-year average for 2007 was 1.2 million long-term unemployed, nearly double the reading for 2000 -- just before the last recession. more...http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/economy/longterm_unemployment/index.htm?postversion=2008013115

Problem could get worse As the stimulus package makes its way through the Senate, there have been pushes to extend unemployment benefits beyond six months. more...http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/economy/longterm_unemployment/index.htm?postversion=2008013115

Older work force playing a role The CBO report didn't have any easy answers for this trend. But it suggested that the aging of the work force might be a major contributing factor. more...http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/economy/longterm_unemployment/index.htm?postversion=2008013115

Employers and workers getting more picky Officials in job outplacement firms, hired by firms to work with employees who have lost their jobs, say they're seeing some increase in the time it takes to find new positions even for those generally better educated workers with whom they work. more...http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/economy/longterm_unemployment/index.htm?postversion=2008013115

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